U.S. Jobs Report Expected to Show Another Big Increase: A Green Week Ahead

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U.S. employers likely added more than half a million workers for a second straight month in November, pushing the labor market closer to a full recovery despite concerns about inflation and persistent Covid infections. 19.

The wage bill is expected to increase by 550,000 and the unemployment rate to drop to 4.5%, according to median estimates of economists before data from the Department of Labor expected Friday in Washington.

A strong jobs report, paired with another monthly rise in consumer prices in Labor Department data from Dec. 10, could seal a decision at the Federal Reserve meeting in mid-December to speed up the process. reduction in bond purchases. But a new pandemic wave could still derail that, a fear that caused market nervousness on Friday.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who has just been chosen for a second term by President Joe Biden, is expected to face questions on Tuesday about the cut, interest rates and inflation when he appears before the Senate Banking Committee for a regular hearing on the Cares Act in March. Pandemic Assistance Program for 2020. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify alongside Powell, and the House Financial Services Committee has scheduled a similar panel for Wednesday.

The Fed’s Beige Book survey, released Wednesday, will also shed light on the economic situation across the country. Other key US data during the week includes pending home sales, consumer confidence, and indexes from the Institute for Supply Management of manufacturing and services.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“A solid jobs report as we’d expect, along with a high CPI reading for November – a very likely outcome given what we know about energy, house prices and the effects base – will cement the decision of policy makers. “

–Anna Wong, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger. For a full analysis, click here

Elsewhere, the fastest inflation since the inception of the euro and easing price pressures in Brazil could be among expected economic reports.

Click here to find out what happened last week, and here’s our recap of what’s happening in the global economy.

Asia

China’s official PMI reports on Tuesday will give the last check on the pulse of the world’s second-largest economy, with economists’ forecasts anticipating improvement for manufacturers as power shortages ease.

Japan is receiving a series of production, unemployment and retail sales data that will show how the economy was doing at the start of this quarter, days after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida launched a record-breaking fiscal stimulus package. The capital expenditure figures will show how the business climate has held up.

South Korea’s export figures are expected to take the last pulse of world trade, while the next day’s inflation figures will show whether prices continue to rise.

India releases gross domestic product data for the July-September quarter, with the pace of the rebound expected to moderate from the previous three months, while GDP data for the third quarter will show how strong the economy is Australian woman suffered during her long blockages.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

Any acceleration in eurozone consumer price data on Tuesday will mean the region will experience the fastest inflation since the creation of the single currency. This will prompt further scrutiny from the European Central Bank, whose officials insist the push is largely transitional as a crucial decision on the future of the stimulus approaches.

In Germany, the region’s largest economy, the compression in the cost of living is even more intense. The median forecast by economists is for an inflation rate of 5.5% in November, although the Bundesbank estimates that the result could be closer to 6%.

Inflation figures from elsewhere in Europe will also show significant jumps. Spain’s rate due on Monday is estimated at 5.6%, according to the median estimate. Poland’s could be even higher at 7.3%.

Other highlights in Western Europe include a speech by Bank of England policy maker Catherine Mann on Tuesday, several appearances by Swedish Riksbank officials and the latest OECD Global Economic Outlook in Paris on Wednesday.

In Turkey, Monday’s trade data and Friday’s inflation data could move the pound, which has just fallen to its longest losing streak in two decades. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has championed a monetary policy that economists say will cause inflation to rise above 20%. The turmoil even led some banks to stop external forecasts.

In Africa on Monday, Kenya’s central bank is expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged for an 11th consecutive meeting to boost the economic recovery, as demand remains subdued even after the government eased foreclosure restrictions on Covid-19.

Data on Tuesday will likely show South Africa’s unemployment rate is still the highest on a global list of 82 countries monitored by Bloomberg. It is expected to remain above 33% in the third quarter, following deadly riots in July and a security breach at the state-owned port operator that hampered trade.

Also on Tuesday, Angola’s central bank is likely to keep interest rates stable to allow time for a 450 basis point hike in July and the entry into force of new government measures to curb the rate. price growth.

Latin America

Expect the November reading of Brazil’s widest inflation measure, released on Monday, to slow for a sixth consecutive month as electricity and food prices fall.

Unemployment data in Mexico in October may reflect a pickup in activity as the number of Covid cases and lockdowns ease. In Chile, currently the most dynamic economy in Latin America, the unemployment rate has probably prolonged a decline of six months. Brazil and Colombia will also report unemployment in October.

Mexican remittances are at record highs, surpassing $ 4 billion per month since February. Transfers from the United States represent 95% of all remittances received in Mexico and two states – California and Texas – make up half of the total.

Banxico’s quarterly inflation report due Wednesday promises a wealth of new forecasts and analysis. Also, search for Chile’s Economic Activity Index to show double-digit growth for a seventh month.

Given a litany of headwinds facing the Brazilian economy, analysts have downgraded their GDP forecasts for 2021 and 2022, but third-quarter production data due Thursday could show at least marginal growth. after decreasing by 0.1% during the period from April to June.

Expect October’s Brazilian industrial production figures to be disappointing on Friday as supply shortages and rapidly rising interest rates sting.

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